Skip to content

2002 Governor · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 523 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 63%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.01% · Republican 68.24%

R+46.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 63 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.007 − 68.243 = -46.236
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-46.236) = 11.236
  4. Absolute miss = |11.236| = 11.236

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54824, race ID 1401 (538 database).