2002 House · NV-1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 38%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.72% · Republican 42.73%
D+11.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 53.721 − 42.725 = 10.996
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.996) = 2.004
- Absolute miss = |2.004| = 2.004
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54823, race ID 2956 (538 database).