2002 Governor · NV
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 21% · Republican 65%
R+44.0
The certified result
Democrat 22.01% · Republican 68.24%
R+46.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21 − 65 = -44.00
- Actual margin = 22.007 − 68.243 = -46.236
- Signed miss = -44.00 − (-46.236) = 2.236
- Absolute miss = |2.236| = 2.236
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54823, race ID 1401 (538 database).