2002 Senate · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 55%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.56% · Republican 58.44%
R+16.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 55 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 41.564 − 58.436 = -16.872
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-16.872) = -2.129
- Absolute miss = |-2.129| = 2.129
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54765, race ID 1661 (538 database).