2002 Governor · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 29%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.15% · Republican 41.47%
D+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 29 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 47.146 − 41.469 = 5.677
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (5.677) = 15.322
- Absolute miss = |15.322| = 15.322
The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54765, race ID 1395 (538 database).