2002 House · ME-2
RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 302 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 36%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.01% · Republican 47.99%
D+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 36 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 52.007 − 47.993 = 4.014
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.014) = -3.013
- Absolute miss = |-3.013| = 3.013
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54764, race ID 2897 (538 database).