2002 Senate · ME
RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 59%
R+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.56% · Republican 58.44%
R+16.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 59 = -28.00
- Actual margin = 41.564 − 58.436 = -16.872
- Signed miss = -28.00 − (-16.872) = -11.129
- Absolute miss = |-11.129| = 11.129
The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54764, race ID 1661 (538 database).