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2002 Governor · MD

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.67% · Republican 51.55%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.675 − 51.553 = -3.878
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.878) = 2.878
  4. Absolute miss = |2.878| = 2.878

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54754, race ID 1396 (538 database).