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2002 Governor · MA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2002-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36.7% · Republican 37.2%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 44.94% · Republican 49.77%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.7 − 37.2 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 44.936 − 49.767 = -4.831
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (-4.831) = 4.331
  4. Absolute miss = |4.331| = 4.331

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54729, race ID 1397 (538 database).