2002 Governor · KS
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.87% · Republican 45.09%
D+7.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 52.873 − 45.092 = 7.781
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.781) = -0.781
- Absolute miss = |-0.781| = 0.781
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54711, race ID 1394 (538 database).