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2002 Governor · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 38%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 45.09%

D+7.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.873 − 45.092 = 7.781
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (7.781) = 7.219
  4. Absolute miss = |7.219| = 7.219

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54710, race ID 1394 (538 database).