2002 Governor · IL
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 36%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%
D+7.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 36 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (7.124) = 8.877
- Absolute miss = |8.877| = 8.877
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54697, race ID 1392 (538 database).