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2002 Governor · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.16% · Republican 56.01%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.160 − 56.010 = -12.850
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-12.850) = -3.150
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.150| = 3.150

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54651, race ID 1388 (538 database).