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2002 Governor · FL

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.16% · Republican 56.01%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.160 − 56.010 = -12.850
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-12.850) = 9.850
  4. Absolute miss = |9.850| = 9.850

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54647, race ID 1388 (538 database).