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2002 Governor · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 792 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.16% · Republican 56.01%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.160 − 56.010 = -12.850
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-12.850) = 5.850
  4. Absolute miss = |5.850| = 5.850

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54644, race ID 1388 (538 database).