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2002 Governor · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 563 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 42.40%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.262 − 42.398 = 4.864
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.864) = 1.135
  4. Absolute miss = |1.135| = 1.135

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54597, race ID 1385 (538 database).