2002 Governor · CA
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 740 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 34%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 42.40%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 34 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.262 − 42.398 = 4.864
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.864) = 2.135
- Absolute miss = |2.135| = 2.135
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54595, race ID 1385 (538 database).