2002 Governor · CA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2002-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 879 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 36%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 42.40%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 36 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 47.262 − 42.398 = 4.864
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (4.864) = 4.135
- Absolute miss = |4.135| = 4.135
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54593, race ID 1385 (538 database).