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2002 Governor · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 41%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.19% · Republican 45.22%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.185 − 45.221 = 0.964
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.964) = 1.036
  4. Absolute miss = |1.036| = 1.036

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54572, race ID 1383 (538 database).