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2002 Governor · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 43%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.19% · Republican 45.22%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.185 − 45.221 = 0.964
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.964) = -1.964
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.964| = 1.964

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54568, race ID 1383 (538 database).