2000 President · WV
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,689 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 50%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.59% · Republican 51.91%
R+6.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 45.593 − 51.915 = -6.322
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-6.322) = 2.323
- Absolute miss = |2.323| = 2.323
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54531, race ID 855 (538 database).