2000 Senate · WV
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,683 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 76% · Republican 18%
D+58.0
The certified result
Democrat 77.75% · Republican 20.16%
D+57.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 76 − 18 = 58.00
- Actual margin = 77.752 − 20.156 = 57.596
- Signed miss = 58.00 − (57.596) = 0.404
- Absolute miss = |0.404| = 0.404
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54531, race ID 1714 (538 database).