2000 Governor · WV
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,691 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 45%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.12% · Republican 47.21%
D+2.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 50.123 − 47.207 = 2.916
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.916) = 1.084
- Absolute miss = |1.084| = 1.084
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54531, race ID 1429 (538 database).