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2000 Senate · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 75% · Republican 14%

D+61.0

The certified result

Democrat 77.75% · Republican 20.16%

D+57.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 75 − 14 = 61.00
  2. Actual margin = 77.752 − 20.156 = 57.596
  3. Signed miss = 61.00 − (57.596) = 3.404
  4. Absolute miss = |3.404| = 3.404

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54529, race ID 1714 (538 database).