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2000 President · WA

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 6,549 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.16% · Republican 44.58%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.158 − 44.579 = 5.579
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.579) = -6.580
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.580| = 6.580

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54525, race ID 853 (538 database).