2000 Senate · WA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 6,542 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%
D+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.090) = -2.091
- Absolute miss = |-2.091| = 2.091
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54525, race ID 1713 (538 database).