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2000 Governor · WA

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 6,545 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 43%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.38% · Republican 39.68%

D+18.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 43 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.383 − 39.681 = 18.702
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (18.702) = -5.702
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.702| = 5.702

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54525, race ID 1428 (538 database).