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2000 Senate · VT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 66%

R+42.0

The certified result

Democrat 25.43% · Republican 65.56%

R+40.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 66 = -42.00
  2. Actual margin = 25.425 − 65.557 = -40.132
  3. Signed miss = -42.00 − (-40.132) = -1.868
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.868| = 1.868

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54518, race ID 1711 (538 database).