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2000 Governor · VT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 39%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.45% · Republican 37.95%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.451 − 37.945 = 12.506
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (12.506) = -5.505
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.505| = 5.505

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54518, race ID 1427 (538 database).