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2000 President · UT

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,641 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 65%

R+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.34% · Republican 66.83%

R+40.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 65 = -40.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.345 − 66.830 = -40.485
  3. Signed miss = -40.00 − (-40.485) = 0.485
  4. Absolute miss = |0.485| = 0.485

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54510, race ID 850 (538 database).