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2000 Senate · UT

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,638 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 64%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.52% · Republican 65.58%

R+34.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 64 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.515 − 65.584 = -34.069
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-34.069) = 2.069
  4. Absolute miss = |2.069| = 2.069

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54510, race ID 1710 (538 database).