2000 Governor · UT
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,643 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 55%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.27% · Republican 55.77%
R+13.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 42.265 − 55.767 = -13.502
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-13.502) = -0.498
- Absolute miss = |-0.498| = 0.498
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54510, race ID 1426 (538 database).