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2000 President · UT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 918 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 62%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.34% · Republican 66.83%

R+40.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 62 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.345 − 66.830 = -40.485
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-40.485) = 2.485
  4. Absolute miss = |2.485| = 2.485

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54509, race ID 850 (538 database).