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2000 Senate · UT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 918 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 64%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.52% · Republican 65.58%

R+34.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 64 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.515 − 65.584 = -34.069
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-34.069) = -2.931
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.931| = 2.931

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54509, race ID 1710 (538 database).