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2000 Governor · UT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 918 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 55%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.27% · Republican 55.77%

R+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.265 − 55.767 = -13.502
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-13.502) = -4.498
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.498| = 4.498

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54509, race ID 1426 (538 database).