2000 Governor · NH
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,388 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 40%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.76%
D+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 48.736 − 43.759 = 4.977
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.977) = 3.023
- Absolute miss = |3.023| = 3.023
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54504, race ID 1425 (538 database).