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2000 President · ND

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 1,258 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 49%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.05% · Republican 60.66%

R+27.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 49 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.055 − 60.659 = -27.604
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-27.604) = 12.603
  4. Absolute miss = |12.603| = 12.603

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54489, race ID 834 (538 database).