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2000 Governor · ND

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 1,258 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.97% · Republican 55.03%

R+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.968 − 55.027 = -10.059
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-10.059) = 4.059
  4. Absolute miss = |4.059| = 4.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54489, race ID 1424 (538 database).