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2000 President · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 56%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.15% · Republican 55.96%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 56 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.146 − 55.958 = -12.812
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-12.812) = -4.188
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.188| = 4.188

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54487, race ID 833 (538 database).