2000 President · NC
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 6,704 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 51%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.15% · Republican 55.96%
R+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 43.146 − 55.958 = -12.812
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-12.812) = 7.812
- Absolute miss = |7.812| = 7.812
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54486, race ID 833 (538 database).