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2000 President · MT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 968 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 56%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.37% · Republican 58.44%

R+25.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 56 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.365 − 58.439 = -25.074
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-25.074) = -2.926
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.926| = 2.926

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54474, race ID 832 (538 database).