Skip to content

2000 Governor · MT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 968 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 51%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.98%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 51 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.083 − 50.985 = -3.902
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-3.902) = -9.098
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.098| = 9.098

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54474, race ID 1422 (538 database).