2000 Governor · MO
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,830 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.12% · Republican 48.21%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 49.120 − 48.206 = 0.914
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.914) = -2.914
- Absolute miss = |-2.914| = 2.914
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54469, race ID 1421 (538 database).