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2000 Senate · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 1,072 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.074) = -5.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.073| = 5.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54458, race ID 1697 (538 database).