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2000 Governor · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 1,072 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.12% · Republican 48.21%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.120 − 48.206 = 0.914
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.914) = -2.914
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.914| = 2.914

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54458, race ID 1421 (538 database).