2000 President · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,599 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 56%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.01% · Republican 56.65%
R+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 56 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 41.012 − 56.647 = -15.635
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-15.635) = -1.365
- Absolute miss = |-1.365| = 1.365
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54454, race ID 821 (538 database).