2000 Senate · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,592 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 25% · Republican 71%
R+46.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.85% · Republican 66.56%
R+34.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 25 − 71 = -46.00
- Actual margin = 31.851 − 66.564 = -34.713
- Signed miss = -46.00 − (-34.713) = -11.287
- Absolute miss = |-11.287| = 11.287
The poll overstated the Republican by 11.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54454, race ID 1690 (538 database).