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2000 President · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 60%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.01% · Republican 56.65%

R+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 60 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.012 − 56.647 = -15.635
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-15.635) = -12.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.365| = 12.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54453, race ID 821 (538 database).