2000 Governor · IN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.56% · Republican 41.68%
D+14.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 56.557 − 41.678 = 14.879
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (14.879) = -8.878
- Absolute miss = |-8.878| = 8.878
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54453, race ID 1420 (538 database).