2000 President · IN
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 30% · Republican 53%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.01% · Republican 56.65%
R+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 30 − 53 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 41.012 − 56.647 = -15.635
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-15.635) = -7.365
- Absolute miss = |-7.365| = 7.365
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54450, race ID 821 (538 database).